Remaining World Cup Projection 2026-07-13

Status: PARTIAL_STRICT_PATH_PROJECTION; 99/100 results must be refreshed if already final. Uses existing V17/FundGuard gates, latest local prematch packs, and no-flip referee policy where available.

Quarterfinals

• #97 France vs Morocco: pick=France; 90m={'France': 0.56, 'Draw90': 0.25, 'Morocco': 0.19}; advance={'France': 0.64, 'Morocco': 0.36}; score=1-0 / 2-1, 防1-1; notes=Tello ref strict; France stronger but Morocco low-block transition risk.
• #98 Spain vs Belgium: pick=Spain; 90m={'Spain': 0.55, 'Draw90': 0.26, 'Belgium': 0.19}; advance={'Spain': 0.63, 'Belgium': 0.37}; score=1-0 / 2-1, 防1-1; notes=Oliver stable, Spain control edge, Belgium counter tail.
• #99 Norway vs England: pick=England; 90m={'Norway': 0.28, 'Draw90': 0.31, 'England': 0.41}; advance={'England': 0.55, 'Norway': 0.45}; score=1-1 / 1-2 / 0-1 / 防2-1; notes=Haaland+Ødegaard chain; England edge but high draw/Norway+1 risk.
• #100 Argentina vs Switzerland: pick=Argentina; 90m={'Argentina': 0.6, 'Draw90': 0.25, 'Switzerland': 0.15}; advance={'Argentina': 0.7, 'Switzerland': 0.3}; score=1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1, 防1-1; notes=Argentina main; Swiss compact low block; Argentina -1 win-not-cover risk.

Semifinal Projection

• #101 likely: Spain vs France, slight Spain edge; score 1-1 / 0-1 / 1-2; Spain advance about 53% conditional on this pairing.
• #102 likely: England vs Argentina, Argentina edge; score 0-1 / 1-1 / 1-2; Argentina advance about 58% conditional on this pairing.

Final / Champion Probabilities

• Argentina: 24.3% champion
• Spain: 20.0% champion
• France: 17.7% champion
• England: 12.9% champion
• Belgium: 8.0% champion
• Norway: 7.2% champion
• Morocco: 5.0% champion
• Switzerland: 4.9% champion

Most Likely Final

• Spain vs Argentina: path_prob=15.7%, final_score_pool=1-1 / 0-1 / 1-2
• France vs Argentina: path_prob=14.1%, final_score_pool=1-1 / 0-1 / 2-1
• Spain vs England: path_prob=9.5%, final_score_pool=1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1
• France vs England: path_prob=8.5%, final_score_pool=1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1
• Belgium vs Argentina: path_prob=7.6%, final_score_pool=0-1 / 1-2
• Spain vs Norway: path_prob=6.4%, final_score_pool=1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1
• France vs Norway: path_prob=5.8%, final_score_pool=1-0 / 2-1
• Morocco vs Argentina: path_prob=5.8%, final_score_pool=0-1 / 0-2

Rank Projection

• Champion: Argentina
• Runner-up: Spain
• Third: France
• Fourth: England
• 5th-8th probability order: Belgium, Norway, Switzerland, Morocco

Caveats

• Need live result refresh for #99/#100 if already played; local fixtures still show placeholders/future rows.
• #99/#100 referee still blank in captured Law5 data; final XI/social/injury gates incomplete.