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"away": "Morocco", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "1-1", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 1, "score_top3_hit": 1, "score_top5_hit": 1, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "62.38", "draw_pct": "21.1", "away_win_pct": "16.52", "xg_home": "1.98", "xg_away": "0.91", "likely_score": "1-0", "href": "/matches/7.html", "tactical_preview": "Brazil在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 62.38%，平 21.1%，客胜 16.52%；xG 参考 1.98 : 0.91；基础可能比分 1-0；最优模型首选比分 1-1；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型方向未命中，应重点复盘早段事件、临场阵容、红黄牌/点球、战术错配、极端效率和市场信号。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-14", "home_cn": "澳大利亚", "away_cn": "土耳其", "event_count": 8, "scores": [ "2-0", "1-0" ], "events": [ { "minute": "27", "text": "不列颠哥伦比亚广场 | 54500人", "score": "", "bucket": "16_30" }, { "minute": "44", "text": "巴勒什·伊尔马兹 | 1-0 | 内斯托里·伊兰昆达 | 保罗·奥孔-恩斯特勒", "score": "1-0", "bucket": "31_45" }, { "minute": "46", "text": "凯南·伊尔迪兹 | 巴勒什·伊尔马兹 | 伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "62", "text": "尤努斯·阿克金 | 奥尔昆·柯克曲 | 尼尚·韦卢皮莱 | 内斯托里·伊兰昆达", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "75", "text": "贾森·杰里亚 | 雅各布·伊塔利亚诺 | 泰特·延吉 | 穆罕默德·图雷", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "81", "text": "萨利赫·厄兹詹 | 伊斯梅尔·于克塞克 | 梅尔特·米尔迪尔 | 泽基·切利克 | 2-0 | 康纳·梅特卡夫", "score": "2-0", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "85", "text": "德尼兹·居尔 | 凯雷姆·阿克蒂尔克奥卢 | 杰克逊·欧文 | 保罗·奥孔-恩斯特勒 | 阿齐兹·贝希奇 | 乔丹·博斯", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "86", "text": "尤努斯·阿克金", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "8", "home": "Qatar", "away": "Switzerland", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "away", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "1-1", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 1, 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肯尼·麦克莱恩 | 劳伦斯·尚克兰 | 莱尼·约瑟夫 | 威尔逊·伊西多尔", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "肯尼·麦克莱恩 | 芬德利·柯蒂斯 | 伤停补时 | 亚辛·福蒂内 | 鲁宾·普罗维登斯", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "9", "home": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away": "Ecuador", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "away", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "1-0", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "9.41", "draw_pct": "15.93", "away_win_pct": "74.66", "xg_home": "0.74", "xg_away": "2.43", "likely_score": "0-2", "href": "/matches/9.html", "tactical_preview": "Ecuador在赛前模型中具备更高胜势，重点看其转换推进、对抗强度和关键球员终结。 概率底图：主胜 9.41%，平 15.93%，客胜 74.66%；xG 参考 0.74 : 2.43；基础可能比分 0-2；最优模型首选比分 1-1；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型方向未命中，应重点复盘早段事件、临场阵容、红黄牌/点球、战术错配、极端效率和市场信号。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-15", "home_cn": "德国", "away_cn": "库拉索", "event_count": 10, "scores": [ "6-1", "5-1", "4-1", "3-1", "2-1", "1-1" ], "events": [ { "minute": "6", "text": "休斯顿体育场 | 72220人", "score": "", "bucket": "00_15" }, { "minute": "21", "text": "利瓦诺·科梅内西亚 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 费利克斯·恩梅查 | 弗洛里安·维尔茨", "score": "1-1", "bucket": "16_30" }, { "minute": "45", "text": "伤停补时 | 2-1 | 尼科·施洛特贝克 | 纳撒尼尔·布朗", "score": "2-1", "bucket": "31_45" }, { "minute": "46", "text": "耶雷米·安东尼塞 | 松切·汉森 | 3-1 | 凯·哈弗茨", "score": "3-1", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "64", "text": "4-1 | 贾马尔·穆西亚拉 | 约书亚·基米希", "score": "4-1", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "65", "text": "杰尔·马加里塔 | 于尔亨·洛卡迪亚 | 德尼茨·翁达夫 | 贾马尔·穆西亚拉", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "73", "text": "5-1 | 纳撒尼尔·布朗 | 德尼茨·翁达夫", "score": "5-1", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "78", "text": "安东尼奥·吕迪格 | 约纳坦·塔 | 达维德·劳姆 | 纳撒尼尔·布朗 | 莱昂·格雷茨卡 | 费利克斯·恩梅查", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "83", "text": "赫尔瓦内·卡斯塔内尔 | 陈达毅 | 6-1 | 德尼茨·翁达夫 | 约书亚·基米希", "score": "6-1", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "88", "text": "瓦尔德马·安东 | 约书亚·基米希", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "10", "home": "Germany", "away": "Curaçao", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "7-1", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "91.32", "draw_pct": "6.65", "away_win_pct": "2.03", "xg_home": "3.4", "xg_away": "0.4", "likely_score": "3-0", "href": "/matches/10.html", "tactical_preview": "Germany在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 91.32%，平 6.65%，客胜 2.03%；xG 参考 3.4 : 0.4；基础可能比分 3-0；最优模型首选比分 1-0；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型同时命中胜平负方向和净胜球代理，赛前强弱判断、节奏预估与边际风险控制均表现较好。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-15", "home_cn": "瑞典", "away_cn": "突尼斯", "event_count": 10, "scores": [ "4-1", "3-1", "2-1", "1-0" ], "events": [ { "minute": "7", "text": "蒙特雷体育场 | 53460人", "score": "", "bucket": "00_15" }, { "minute": "30", "text": "1-0 | 亚辛·阿亚里", "score": "1-0", "bucket": "16_30" }, { "minute": "43", "text": "奥马尔·雷基克 | 汉尼拔·梅布里 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 亚历山大·伊萨克 | 维克托·哲凯赖什", "score": "2-1", "bucket": "31_45" }, { "minute": "54", "text": "拉尼·赫迪拉 | 伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "65", "text": "3-1 | 维克托·哲凯赖什 | 亚历山大·伊萨克", "score": "3-1", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "72", "text": "穆罕默德·哈吉·马哈茂德 | 扬·瓦莱里 | 塞巴斯蒂安·图内克蒂 | 埃利亚斯·萨阿德 | 埃利亚斯·阿舒里 | 埃利亚斯·斯希里 | 卢卡斯·贝里瓦尔 | 本亚明·尼格伦 | 埃利奥特·斯特劳德 | 加布里埃尔·古德蒙松", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "83", "text": "伊斯梅尔·加尔比 | 拉尼·赫迪拉", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "84", "text": "菲拉斯·沙瓦 | 阿尼斯·本·苏莱曼", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "86", "text": "4-1 | 马蒂亚斯·斯万贝里 | 亚历山大·伊萨克 | 马蒂亚斯·斯万贝里 | 耶斯佩·卡尔斯特伦", "score": "4-1", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时 | 马蒂亚斯·斯万贝里 | 进球未判定 | 进球有效", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "11", "home": "Netherlands", "away": "Japan", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "2-2", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "65.36", "draw_pct": "19.99", "away_win_pct": "14.65", "xg_home": "2.08", "xg_away": "0.86", "likely_score": "2-0", "href": "/matches/11.html", "tactical_preview": "Netherlands在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 65.36%，平 19.99%，客胜 14.65%；xG 参考 2.08 : 0.86；基础可能比分 2-0；最优模型首选比分 1-0；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型方向未命中，应重点复盘早段事件、临场阵容、红黄牌/点球、战术错配、极端效率和市场信号。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-15", "home_cn": "科特迪瓦", "away_cn": "厄瓜多尔", "event_count": 9, "scores": [], "events": [ { "minute": "28", "text": "费城体育场 | 69328人", "score": "", "bucket": "16_30" }, { "minute": "38", "text": "塞科·福法纳", "score": "", "bucket": "31_45" }, { "minute": "40", "text": "弗兰克·凯西", "score": "", "bucket": "31_45" }, { "minute": "56", "text": "尼尔松·安古洛 | 阿兰·明达 | 伤停补时 | 盖拉·杜埃", "score": "", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "62", "text": "安赫洛·普雷西亚多 | 霍恩·耶博阿 | 哈克松·波罗索 | 阿兰·弗兰科 | 阿马德·迪亚洛 | 巴祖马纳·图雷 | 安热-约安·博尼 | 埃莱·瓦希", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "73", "text": "哈克松·波罗索", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "77", "text": "凯文·罗德里格斯 | 恩纳·巴伦西亚", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "89", "text": "克里斯特·伊纳奥·乌拉伊 | 尼古拉·佩佩 | 易卜拉欣·桑加雷 | 塞科·福法纳", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时 | 奥迪隆·科苏努 | 盖拉·杜埃", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, 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"text": "伤停补时 | 达拉斯体育场 | 92967人", "score": "", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "57", "text": "中村敬斗 | 久保建英 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 维吉尔·范戴克 | 瑞安·赫拉芬贝赫", "score": "1-1", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "64", "text": "克莱森西奥·萨默维尔", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "66", "text": "伊东纯也 | 前田大然 | 2-1 | 克莱森西奥·萨默维尔 | 瑞安·赫拉芬贝赫", "score": "2-1", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "75", "text": "富安健洋 | 渡边刚 | 菅原由势 | 堂安律 | 小川航基 | 久保建英 | 昆滕·廷贝尔 | 蒂贾尼·赖因德斯 | 特恩·库普梅纳斯 | 克莱森西奥·萨默维尔 | 孟菲斯·德佩 | 多尼耶尔·马伦", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "83", "text": "内森·阿克 | 瑞安·赫拉芬贝赫", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "84", "text": "盐贝健人 | 上田绮世 | 孟菲斯·德佩", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "89", "text": "镰田大地 | 小川航基 | 2-2 | 布莱恩·布罗比 | 科迪·加克波", "score": "2-2", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "13", "home": "Saudi Arabia", "away": 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"minute": "61", "text": "努诺·达科斯塔 | 达隆·利夫拉门托 | 德罗伊·杜阿尔特 | 拉罗斯·杜阿尔特 | 威利·塞梅多 | 约瓦内·卡布拉尔 | 伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "76", "text": "若昂·保罗 | 西德尼·卡布拉尔 | 拉明·亚马尔 | 巴勃罗·加维 | 米克尔·梅里诺 | 法比安·鲁伊斯", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "79", "text": "特尔莫·阿尔坎若 | 雅米罗·蒙泰罗", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "87", "text": "达尼·奥尔莫 | 费兰·托雷斯 | 拉明·亚马尔", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时 | 尼科·威廉斯 | 罗德里·埃尔南德斯", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "14", "home": "Spain", "away": "Cabo Verde", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "0-0", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "92.33", "draw_pct": "6.09", 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卡勒姆·麦考瓦特 | 本·奥尔德 | 利贝拉托·卡卡切 | 伊赫桑·哈吉萨菲 | 萨曼·古多斯", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "78", "text": "卡伦·埃利奥特 | 蒂姆·佩恩", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "89", "text": "阿米尔侯赛因·侯赛因扎德 | 迈赫迪·塔雷米", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "泰勒·宾登 | 马尔科·斯塔梅尼奇 | 杰西·兰德尔 | 萨普里特·辛格 | 伤停补时 | 伊赫桑·哈吉萨菲", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "15", "home": "IR Iran", "away": "New Zealand", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "2-2", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "68.6", "draw_pct": "18.68", "away_win_pct": "12.71", "xg_home": "2.19", "xg_away": "0.82", "likely_score": "2-0", "href": "/matches/15.html", "tactical_preview": "IR 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"text": "哈姆扎·阿卜杜勒卡里姆 | 默罕穆德·萨拉赫 | 齐佐·赛义德 | 穆斯塔法·济科 | 马克西姆·德克伊珀", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "88", "text": "易卜拉欣·阿德尔 | 哈姆迪·法特希 | 卡里姆·哈菲兹 | 艾哈迈德·法图赫 | 汉斯·范纳肯 | 凯文·德布劳内 | 马蒂亚斯·费尔南德斯 | 热雷米·多库", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "16", "home": "Belgium", "away": "Egypt", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "1-1", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "64.04", "draw_pct": "20.49", "away_win_pct": "15.46", "xg_home": "2.03", "xg_away": "0.88", "likely_score": "2-0", "href": "/matches/16.html", "tactical_preview": "Belgium在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 64.04%，平 20.49%，客胜 15.46%；xG 参考 2.03 : 0.88；基础可能比分 2-0；最优模型首选比分 1-0；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", 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"17", "home": "France", "away": "Senegal", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "3-1", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "85.5", "draw_pct": "10.07", "away_win_pct": "4.43", "xg_home": "3.05", "xg_away": "0.59", "likely_score": "3-0", "href": "/matches/17.html", "tactical_preview": "France在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 85.5%，平 10.07%，客胜 4.43%；xG 参考 3.05 : 0.59；基础可能比分 3-0；最优模型首选比分 1-0；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型同时命中胜平负方向和净胜球代理，赛前强弱判断、节奏预估与边际风险控制均表现较好。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-17", "home_cn": "阿根廷", "away_cn": "阿尔及利亚", "event_count": 8, "scores": [ "3-0", "2-0", "1-0" ], "events": [ { "minute": "9", "text": "法雷斯·沙伊比 | 进球判定 | 进球无效", "score": "", "bucket": "00_15" }, { "minute": "46", "text": "伤停补时 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"1-1", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_away", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 0, "home_win_pct": "9.47", "draw_pct": "15.99", "away_win_pct": "74.54", "xg_home": "0.74", "xg_away": "2.43", "likely_score": "0-2", "href": "/matches/18.html", "tactical_preview": "Norway在赛前模型中具备更高胜势，重点看其转换推进、对抗强度和关键球员终结。 概率底图：主胜 9.47%，平 15.99%，客胜 74.54%；xG 参考 0.74 : 2.43；基础可能比分 0-2；最优模型首选比分 1-1；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型命中胜平负方向，但比分或净胜球边际仍有偏差，说明大方向有效、尾部分布需要复盘。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-17", "home_cn": "奥地利", "away_cn": "约旦", "event_count": 10, "scores": [ "2-1", "1-1", "1-0" ], "events": [ { "minute": "21", "text": "旧金山湾区体育场 | 70909人", "score": "", "bucket": "16_30" }, { "minute": "46", "text": "伤停补时 | 1-0 | 罗马诺·施密德 | 克萨韦尔·施拉格尔", "score": "1-0", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "50", "text": "阿里·乌勒万 | 努尔·拉瓦卜迪赫 | 1-1 | 马尔科·阿瑙托维奇 | 萨沙·卡莱季奇", "score": "1-1", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "70", "text": "卡尼·丘库埃梅卡 | 克萨韦尔·施拉格尔 | 凯文·丹索 | 大卫·阿拉巴 | 保罗·万纳 | 菲利普·姆韦内", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "72", "text": "萨利姆·奥贝德 | 穆罕默德·阿布纳迪 | 马尔科·阿瑙托维奇 | 进球判定 | 进球无效", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "77", "text": "2-1 | 亚赞·阿拉伯", "score": "2-1", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "81", "text": "赛义德·罗桑 | 阿卜杜拉·纳西卜 | 马哈茂德·马尔迪 | 伊赫桑·哈达德 | 马塞尔·萨比策", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "88", "text": "穆罕默德·达乌德 | 穆萨·塔迈里 | 帕特里克·维默尔 | 罗马诺·施密德", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "89", "text": "阿里·阿扎伊泽 | 乌达特·法胡里", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "19", "home": "Argentina", "away": "Algeria", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "3-0", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, 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安东尼奥·努萨 | 马尔科·法尔吉 | 阿里·哈马迪 | 齐达内·伊克巴尔 | 扎伊德·伊斯梅尔", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "76", "text": "莱奥·厄斯蒂高 | 马丁·厄德高 | 1-3 | 穆斯塔法·萨杜恩 | 侯赛因·阿里 | 艾哈迈德·卡西姆 | 阿里·贾西姆", "score": "1-3", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "81", "text": "帕特里克·贝格 | 马丁·厄德高 | 莫哈纳德·阿里 | 易卜拉欣·巴耶什", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "艾曼·侯赛因 | 1-4 | 扎伊德·塔赫辛", "score": "1-4", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "20", "home": "Austria", "away": "Jordan", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "3-1", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "78.31", "draw_pct": "14.1", "away_win_pct": "7.6", "xg_home": "2.61", "xg_away": "0.69", "likely_score": "2-0", "href": "/matches/20.html", "tactical_preview": "Austria在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 78.31%，平 14.1%，客胜 7.6%；xG 参考 2.61 : 0.69；基础可能比分 2-0；最优模型首选比分 1-0；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型同时命中胜平负方向和净胜球代理，赛前强弱判断、节奏预估与边际风险控制均表现较好。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-17", "home_cn": "法国", "away_cn": "塞内加尔", "event_count": 8, "scores": [ "2-1", "2-0", "1-0" ], "events": [ { "minute": "60", "text": "伤停补时 | 纽约/新泽西体育场 | 87157人", "score": "", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "66", "text": "基利安·姆巴佩 | 点球未判定 | 点球取消", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "75", "text": "易卜拉欣·姆巴耶 | 伊斯梅拉·萨尔 | 1-0 | 基利安·姆巴佩 | 迈克尔·奥利塞", "score": "1-0", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "76", "text": "哈比卜·迪亚拉 | 拉明·卡马拉", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "82", "text": "布拉德利·巴尔科拉 | 奥斯曼·登贝莱", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "83", "text": "班巴·迪昂 | 尼古拉斯·杰克逊 | 伊利曼·恩迪亚耶 | 帕佩·盖伊 | 2-0 | 布拉德利·巴尔科拉 | 阿德里安·拉比奥", "score": "2-0", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "88", "text": "帕特·西塞 | 伊德里萨·盖伊 | 拉扬·谢尔基 | 德西雷·杜埃", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "易卜拉欣·姆巴耶 | 伊利曼·恩迪亚耶 | 2-1 | 伤停补时", "score": "2-1", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "21", "home": "Ghana", "away": "Panama", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "1-0", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 1, "score_top3_hit": 1, "score_top5_hit": 1, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "55.78", "draw_pct": "23.18", "away_win_pct": "21.04", "xg_home": "1.79", "xg_away": "1.0", "likely_score": "1-1", "href": "/matches/21.html", "tactical_preview": "Ghana在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 55.78%，平 23.18%，客胜 21.04%；xG 参考 1.79 : 1.0；基础可能比分 1-1；最优模型首选比分 1-0；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型同时命中胜平负方向和净胜球代理，赛前强弱判断、节奏预估与边际风险控制均表现较好。", 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"stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "22", "home": "England", "away": "Croatia", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "4-2", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "64.84", "draw_pct": "20.19", "away_win_pct": "14.97", "xg_home": "2.06", "xg_away": "0.87", "likely_score": "2-0", "href": "/matches/22.html", "tactical_preview": "England在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 64.84%，平 20.19%，客胜 14.97%；xG 参考 2.06 : 0.87；基础可能比分 2-0；最优模型首选比分 1-0；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型同时命中胜平负方向和净胜球代理，赛前强弱判断、节奏预估与边际风险控制均表现较好。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-18", "home_cn": "乌兹别克斯坦", "away_cn": "哥伦比亚", "event_count": 8, "scores": [ "1-3", "1-2", "0-1" ], "events": [ { "minute": 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}, { "minute": "84", "text": "霍德弗里德·罗默拉托 | 利瓦诺·科梅内西亚 | 安赫洛·普雷西亚多 | 阿兰·弗兰科", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "赫尔瓦内·卡斯塔内尔 | 伤停补时 | 霍尔迪·凯塞多 | 霍恩·耶博阿", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "36", "home": "Tunisia", "away": "Japan", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "away", "pred_wdl": "away", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "0-4", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_away", "pred_hcap": "rq_away", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "15.07", "draw_pct": "20.26", "away_win_pct": "64.67", "xg_home": "0.87", "xg_away": "2.05", "likely_score": "0-2", "href": "/matches/36.html", "tactical_preview": "Japan在赛前模型中具备更高胜势，重点看其转换推进、对抗强度和关键球员终结。 概率底图：主胜 15.07%，平 20.26%，客胜 64.67%；xG 参考 0.87 : 2.05；基础可能比分 0-2；最优模型首选比分 1-1；净胜球覆盖风险为 让客。", "postmatch_commentary": 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"安特·布迪米尔 | 约瑟普·斯塔尼希奇 | 0-1", "score": "0-1", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "72", "text": "佩塔尔·苏契奇 | 马特奥·科瓦契奇 | 卢卡·苏契奇 | 马尔科·帕沙利奇 | 约埃尔·巴尔塞尼亚斯", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "81", "text": "马里奥·帕沙利奇 | 卢卡·莫德里奇 | 塞西·沃特曼 | 希奥瓦尼·拉莫斯", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "佩塔尔·苏契奇 | 伤停补时 | 阿扎里亚斯·隆多尼奥 | 何塞·法哈多", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "48", "home": "Colombia", "away": "Congo DR", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 1, "actual_score": "1-0", "score_top1": "1-0", "score_top3": "1-0", "score_top5": "1-0", "score_top1_hit": 1, "score_top3_hit": 1, "score_top5_hit": 1, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "90.14", "draw_pct": "7.27", "away_win_pct": "2.59", "xg_home": "3.4", "xg_away": "0.48", "likely_score": "3-0", "href": "/matches/48.html", 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}, { "minute": "63", "text": "奥贝德·巴尔加斯 | 路易斯·罗莫 | 圣地亚哥·希门尼斯 | 吉列尔莫·马丁内斯", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "64", "text": "埃德松·阿尔瓦雷斯", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "72", "text": "阿尔瓦罗·菲达尔戈 | 希尔韦托·莫拉 | 托马什·绍切克 | 托马什·霍莱什 | 帕特里克·希克 | 亚当·赫洛热克", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "78", "text": "赫苏斯·加利亚多 | 马特奥·查韦斯 | 吉列尔莫·奥乔亚 | 劳尔·兰赫尔", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "阿尔瓦罗·菲达尔戈 | 罗伯托·阿尔瓦拉多 | 0-3 | 伤停补时 | 亚历山大·索伊卡 | 托马什·绍切克 | 托马什·霍里 | 卢卡什·切尔夫", "score": "0-3", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "54", "home": "South Africa", "away": "Korea Republic", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "away", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "1-0", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_away", "pred_hcap": "rq_away", "hcap_hit": 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"text": "塞尔吉诺·德斯特 | 乔瓦尼·雷纳", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "77", "text": "亚历克斯·森德哈斯 | 布伦登·阿伦森 | 亚历克斯·弗里曼 | 乔·斯卡利", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "86", "text": "马利克·蒂尔曼 | 韦斯顿·麦肯尼 | 恰拉尔·瑟云聚 | 泽基·切利克 | 詹·伊尔马兹·乌尊 | 凯南·伊尔迪兹", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时 | 卡恩·艾汉 | 奥尔昆·柯克曲", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "56", "home": "Ecuador", "away": "Germany", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "home", "pred_wdl": "away", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "2-1", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_draw", "pred_hcap": "rq_away", "hcap_hit": 0, "home_win_pct": "12.86", "draw_pct": "18.79", "away_win_pct": "68.35", "xg_home": "0.82", "xg_away": "2.18", "likely_score": "0-2", "href": "/matches/56.html", "tactical_preview": 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"minute": "77", "text": "孟菲斯·德佩 | 布莱恩·布罗比 | 菲拉斯·沙瓦 | 伊斯梅尔·加尔比", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "84", "text": "诺阿·朗 | 科迪·加克波", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "57", "home": "Japan", "away": "Sweden", "source": "v156_persisted_66", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "1-1", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 1, "score_top3_hit": 1, "score_top5_hit": 1, "actual_hcap": "rq_home", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 1, "home_win_pct": "44.24", "draw_pct": "25.49", "away_win_pct": "30.26", "xg_home": "1.5", "xg_away": "1.2", "likely_score": "1-1", "href": "/matches/57.html", "tactical_preview": "Japan在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 44.24%，平 25.49%，客胜 30.26%；xG 参考 1.5 : 1.2；基础可能比分 1-1；最优模型首选比分 1-1；净胜球覆盖风险为 让主。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型方向未命中，应重点复盘早段事件、临场阵容、红黄牌/点球、战术错配、极端效率和市场信号。", "baidu_live": { "available": true, "date": "2026-06-26", "home_cn": "库拉索", "away_cn": "科特迪瓦", "event_count": 8, "scores": [ "0-2", "0-1" ], "events": [ { "minute": "7", "text": "尼古拉·佩佩 | 杨·迪奥曼德 | 0-1", "score": "0-1", "bucket": "00_15" }, { "minute": "35", "text": "尼古拉·佩佩", "score": "", "bucket": "31_45" }, { "minute": "46", "text": "克里斯特·伊纳奥·乌拉伊 | 阿马德·迪亚洛 | 伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "46_60" }, { "minute": "64", "text": "尼古拉·佩佩 | 易卜拉欣·桑加雷 | 0-2 | 耶雷米·安东尼塞 | 利瓦诺·科梅内西亚", "score": "0-2", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "67", "text": "巴祖马纳·图雷 | 杨·迪奥曼德 | 埃莱·瓦希 | 尼古拉·佩佩 | 奥马尔·迪亚基特 | 安热-约安·博尼", "score": "", "bucket": "61_75" }, { "minute": "77", "text": "让-米夏埃尔·塞里 | 弗兰克·凯西 | 儒尼尼奥·巴库纳", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "83", "text": "泰瑞斯·诺斯林 | 德弗伦·丰维尔 | 赫尔瓦内·卡斯塔内尔 | 朱利安·加里", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时 | 赫尔瓦内·卡斯塔内尔", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, 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"text": "利昂内尔·梅西 | 1-3 | 阿米尔·贾穆斯 | 纳扎尔·拉什丹", "score": "1-3", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "82", "text": "何塞·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯 | 胡利安·阿尔瓦雷斯", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" }, { "minute": "90", "text": "伤停补时", "score": "", "bucket": "76_90" } ] }, "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "1-90 all90 backtest" }, { "match_no": "69", "home": "Algeria", "away": "Austria", "source": "scheduler_feature_reconstruction", "actual_wdl": "draw", "pred_wdl": "home", "wdl_hit": 0, "actual_score": "3-3", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1", "score_top5": "1-1", "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "actual_hcap": "rq_draw", "pred_hcap": "rq_home", "hcap_hit": 0, "home_win_pct": "31.04", "draw_pct": "25.59", "away_win_pct": "43.37", "xg_home": "1.21", "xg_away": "1.48", "likely_score": "1-1", "href": "/matches/69.html", "tactical_preview": "Algeria在赛前模型中拥有更清晰的主动权，重点看其前场压迫、阵地推进与终结效率。 概率底图：主胜 31.04%，平 25.59%，客胜 43.37%；xG 参考 1.21 : 1.48；基础可能比分 1-1；最优模型首选比分 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"postmatch_commentary": "待补硬赛果与赛前预测源后再计算命中情况，避免把未知结果误判为模型错误。", "baidu_live": { "available": false, "date": "", "home_cn": "", "away_cn": "", "event_count": 0, "scores": [], "events": [] } }, { "match_no": "100", "home": "Argentina/Egypt", "away": "Switzerland/Colombia", "actual_score": "", "actual_wdl": "", "pred_wdl": "", "score_top1": "", "score_top3": "", "score_top5": "", "pred_hcap": "", "actual_hcap": "", "home_win_pct": "", "draw_pct": "", "away_win_pct": "", "xg_home": "", "xg_away": "", "likely_score": "", "round_label": "1/4决赛", "date_note": "2026-07-12 09:00 BJT", "model": "", "actual_source": "missing_or_not_yet_verified_local_hard_result", "prediction_source": "missing_strict_prediction_record", "strictness_note": "纳入扩展准确率需同时有硬赛果和赛前预测；当前缺项不进入分母。", "stat_status": "archive_only_pending_verification", "archive_scope": "91-104 extended archive", "wdl_hit": null, "score_top1_hit": null, "score_top3_hit": null, "score_top5_hit": null, "hcap_hit": null, "href": "/matches/100.html", "tactical_preview": "该场已进入 91-104 补充归档，但本地尚缺硬赛果或严格赛前预测记录；先展示赛程/预测资料，不纳入准确率分母。", "postmatch_commentary": "待补硬赛果与赛前预测源后再计算命中情况，避免把未知结果误判为模型错误。", "baidu_live": { "available": false, "date": "", "home_cn": "", "away_cn": "", "event_count": 0, "scores": [], "events": [] } }, { "match_no": "101", "home": "Winner QF1", "away": "Winner QF2", "actual_score": "", "actual_wdl": "", "pred_wdl": "", "score_top1": "", "score_top3": "", "score_top5": "", "pred_hcap": "", "actual_hcap": "", "home_win_pct": "", "draw_pct": "", "away_win_pct": "", "xg_home": "", "xg_away": "", "likely_score": "", "round_label": "半决赛", "date_note": "2026-07-15 03:00 BJT", "model": "", "actual_source": "missing_or_not_yet_verified_local_hard_result", "prediction_source": "missing_strict_prediction_record", "strictness_note": "纳入扩展准确率需同时有硬赛果和赛前预测；当前缺项不进入分母。", "stat_status": "archive_only_pending_verification", "archive_scope": "91-104 extended archive", "wdl_hit": null, "score_top1_hit": null, "score_top3_hit": null, "score_top5_hit": null, "hcap_hit": null, "href": "/matches/101.html", "tactical_preview": "该场已进入 91-104 补充归档，但本地尚缺硬赛果或严格赛前预测记录；先展示赛程/预测资料，不纳入准确率分母。", "postmatch_commentary": "待补硬赛果与赛前预测源后再计算命中情况，避免把未知结果误判为模型错误。", "baidu_live": { "available": false, "date": "", "home_cn": "", "away_cn": "", "event_count": 0, "scores": [], "events": [] } }, { "match_no": "102", "home": "England", "away": "Argentina", "actual_score": "", "actual_wdl": "", "pred_wdl": "", "score_top1": "", "score_top3": "", "score_top5": "", "pred_hcap": "", "actual_hcap": "", "home_win_pct": "", "draw_pct": "", "away_win_pct": "", "xg_home": "", "xg_away": "", "likely_score": "", "round_label": "半决赛", "date_note": "2026-07-16 03:00 BJT", "model": "", "actual_source": "missing_or_not_yet_verified_local_hard_result", "prediction_source": "missing_strict_prediction_record", "strictness_note": "纳入扩展准确率需同时有硬赛果和赛前预测；当前缺项不进入分母。", "stat_status": "archive_only_pending_verification", "archive_scope": "91-104 extended archive", "wdl_hit": null, "score_top1_hit": null, "score_top3_hit": null, "score_top5_hit": null, "hcap_hit": null, "href": "/matches/102.html", "tactical_preview": "该场已进入 91-104 补充归档，但本地尚缺硬赛果或严格赛前预测记录；先展示赛程/预测资料，不纳入准确率分母。", "postmatch_commentary": "待补硬赛果与赛前预测源后再计算命中情况，避免把未知结果误判为模型错误。", "baidu_live": { "available": false, "date": "", "home_cn": "", "away_cn": "", "event_count": 0, "scores": [], "events": [] } }, { "match_no": "103", "home": "France", "away": "England", "actual_score": "4-6", "actual_wdl": "away", "pred_wdl": "draw", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1;2-1;1-0", "score_top5": "1-1;2-1;1-0;2-0;1-2", "pred_hcap": "rq_away", "actual_hcap": "rq_away", "home_win_pct": "", "draw_pct": "", "away_win_pct": "", "xg_home": "", "xg_away": "", "likely_score": "", "round_label": "季军赛", "date_note": "2026-07-19 05:00 BJT", "model": "V17/V17.1 prematch center from integrity audit", "actual_source": "report_103_france_england_integrity_audit_20260719.md + baidu_live_103_events_20260719.csv", "prediction_source": "report_103_france_england_integrity_audit_20260719.md", "strictness_note": "可纳入扩展指标，但注意预测源 strictness 需在页面标注。", "stat_status": "verified_for_metrics", "archive_scope": "91-104 extended archive", "wdl_hit": 0, "score_top1_hit": 0, "score_top3_hit": 0, "score_top5_hit": 0, "hcap_hit": 1, "href": "/matches/103.html", "tactical_preview": "赛前模型判断双方边界很窄，比赛大概率进入胶着脚本，早段进球、定位球和换人节奏会显著改变走势。 概率底图：主胜 -%，平 -%，客胜 -%；xG 参考 - : -；基础可能比分 -；最优模型首选比分 1-1；净胜球覆盖风险为 让客。", "postmatch_commentary": "模型方向未命中，应重点复盘早段事件、临场阵容、红黄牌/点球、战术错配、极端效率和市场信号。", "baidu_live": { "available": false, "date": "", "home_cn": "", "away_cn": "", "event_count": 0, "scores": [], "events": [] } }, { "match_no": "104", "home": "Spain", "away": "Argentina", "actual_score": "", "actual_wdl": "", "pred_wdl": "draw", "score_top1": "1-1", "score_top3": "1-1;2-1;1-0", "score_top5": "1-1;2-1;1-0;0-0;1-2", "pred_hcap": "rq_away", "actual_hcap": "", "home_win_pct": "", "draw_pct": "", "away_win_pct": "", "xg_home": "", "xg_away": "", "likely_score": "", "round_label": "决赛", "date_note": "2026-07-20 03:00 BJT", "model": "V17 Composite + FundGuard v1.2c / partial strict", "actual_source": "missing_or_not_yet_verified_local_hard_result", "prediction_source": "report_fundguard_104_2000_plan_20260719.md", "strictness_note": "纳入扩展准确率需同时有硬赛果和赛前预测；当前缺项不进入分母。", "stat_status": "archive_only_pending_verification", "archive_scope": "91-104 extended archive", "wdl_hit": null, "score_top1_hit": null, "score_top3_hit": null, "score_top5_hit": null, "hcap_hit": null, "href": "/matches/104.html", "tactical_preview": "该场已进入 91-104 补充归档，但本地尚缺硬赛果或严格赛前预测记录；先展示赛程/预测资料，不纳入准确率分母。", "postmatch_commentary": "待补硬赛果与赛前预测源后再计算命中情况，避免把未知结果误判为模型错误。", "baidu_live": { "available": false, "date": "", "home_cn": "", "away_cn": "", "event_count": 0, "scores": [], "events": [] } } ], "metric_sample_size": 91, "archive_total_matches": 104, "reports": [ { "file": "fixture_91_104_summary_20260713.md", "slug": "fixture_91_104_summary_20260713", "title": "报告", "excerpt": "## fixtures_104_complete_baidu_20260705.csv match_no=91 | round_number=5 | round_label=1/8决赛 | date_utc=2026-07-05 20:00:00Z | beijing_time=2026-07-06 04:00 | location=New York/New Jersey Stadium | home=Brazil | away=Norway | home_90= | away_90= | wdl_90= | ad", "href": "/reports/fixture_91_104_summary_20260713.html" }, { "file": "final4_prematch_data_pack_20260713.md", "slug": "final4_prematch_data_pack_20260713", "title": "Final 4 Prematch Data Pack 2026-07-13", "excerpt": "# Final 4 Prematch Data Pack 2026-07-13 Status: PARTIAL_STRICT_FINAL4_DATA_PACK ## Matches / Official Odds ### #101 France vs Spain | 2026-07-15 03:00 | Dallas Stadium - SPF: {'France': 2.07, 'Draw': 3.1, 'Spain': 3.1} - RQSPF: {'France-1 Win': 4.6, 'Draw': 3.", "href": "/reports/final4_prematch_data_pack_20260713.html" }, { "file": "prematch_099_data_pack_20260711.md", "slug": "prematch_099_data_pack_20260711", "title": "099 Norway vs England Prematch Data Pack - 2026-07-11", "excerpt": "# 099 Norway vs England Prematch Data Pack - 2026-07-11 ## Model - code: 周六099 - match: 挪威 vs 英格兰 - referee: Law5 blank at capture - base_home: 0.25 - base_draw: 0.29 - base_away: 0.46 - adj_home: 0.27 - adj_draw: 0.3 - adj_away: 0.43 - confidence: 中偏低-中 0.56 ", "href": "/reports/prematch_099_data_pack_20260711.html" }, { "file": "prematch_100_data_pack_20260711.md", "slug": "prematch_100_data_pack_20260711", "title": "100 Argentina vs Switzerland Prematch Pack 2026-07-11", "excerpt": "# 100 Argentina vs Switzerland Prematch Pack 2026-07-11 Status: PARTIAL_STRICT_REFEREE_XI_SOCIAL_INCOMPLETE Kickoff BJ: 2026-07-12 09:00 ## Sporttery Odds - SPF 0 胜 @ 1.51 mode=PARLAY_ONLY - SPF 0 平 @ 3.45 mode=PARLAY_ONLY - SPF 0 负 @ 5.65 mode=PARLAY_ONLY - R", "href": "/reports/prematch_100_data_pack_20260711.html" }, { "file": "report_fundguard_104_2000_plan_20260719.md", "slug": "report_fundguard_104_2000_plan_20260719", "title": "104 Spain vs Argentina FundGuard 2000 Plan 2026-07-19", "excerpt": "# 104 Spain vs Argentina FundGuard 2000 Plan 2026-07-19 官方赔率已刷新：SPF 2.11 / 2.96 / 3.15；西班牙-1 让负 1.57；JQS 2球 3.25、3球 4.05；BF 1-1 5.45、0-0 8.00、2-1 7.00、1-2 10.00。 预算合计：2020 元。 ## 模型结论 104 是决赛，不把 103 三四名赛 4-6 的开放反例机械外推。决赛语义应重新收紧。西班牙控球结构和整体压迫略优，阿根廷淘汰赛经验、转换和定位球使平局", "href": "/reports/report_fundguard_104_2000_plan_20260719.html" }, { "file": "report_103_france_england_integrity_audit_20260719.md", "slug": "report_103_france_england_integrity_audit_20260719", "title": "103 France vs England Integrity / Abnormality Audit 2026-07-19", "excerpt": "# 103 France vs England Integrity / Abnormality Audit 2026-07-19 数据源：百度体育赛况/统计页 + 百度搜索结果中的央视战报摘要。 注意：本报告只能判断“是否有可见异常信号”，不能在没有硬证据时定性假球。 ## Confirmed Facts - 比赛性质：世界杯季军赛 / 三四名决赛。 - 赛果：法国 4-6 英格兰。 - 百度搜索结果中的央视摘要：英格兰 6:4 胜法国获季军，萨卡帽子戏法，法国上下半场表现完全不同。 - 百度统计：法国控球 46%", "href": "/reports/report_103_france_england_integrity_audit_20260719.html" }, { "file": "remaining_worldcup_projection_20260713.md", "slug": "remaining_worldcup_projection_20260713", "title": "Remaining World Cup Projection 2026-07-13", "excerpt": "# Remaining World Cup Projection 2026-07-13 Status: PARTIAL_STRICT_PATH_PROJECTION; 99/100 results must be refreshed if already final. Uses existing V17/FundGuard gates, latest local prematch packs, and no-flip referee policy where available. ## Quarterfinals ", "href": "/reports/remaining_worldcup_projection_20260713.html" }, { "file": "report_v156_all90_backtest_20260705.md", "slug": "report_v156_all90_backtest_20260705", "title": "V15.6 全 90 场回滚/补充评估｜2026-07-05", "excerpt": "# V15.6 全 90 场回滚/补充评估｜2026-07-05 ## 口径 - Match 1-88：使用 `out/v156_reconstructed_backtest_88_20260704.csv`。 - Match 89-90：使用 July 5 V15.6 赛前包补充口径，并用最新 90 分钟赛果评估。 - 89/90 不冒充原始 persisted 88 文件。 ## 指标 - 胜平负：66/90 = 73.33% - 比分 Top1：13/90 = 14.44% - 比分 Top3：14/90 =", "href": "/reports/report_v156_all90_backtest_20260705.html" }, { "file": "report_v172_gate_and_fundguard_v12_20260708.md", "slug": "report_v172_gate_and_fundguard_v12_20260708", "title": "V17.2 Gate + FundGuard v1.2 回滚实验｜2026-07-08", "excerpt": "# V17.2 Gate + FundGuard v1.2 回滚实验｜2026-07-08 ## 预测层 - V17 原始：67/90 = 74.44% - V17.2 候选 gate：63/90 = 70.00% - 净变化：-4 场；改动场次：10 ## 买票层 095/096 回滚 - FundGuard v1.1 实买/模拟票：500元，在095/096已知90分钟结果下已知损失 500 元。 - FundGuard v1.2 若执行核心腿脆弱限制：进入同类高风险组合金额 0 元，保留/不下注 500 元，", "href": "/reports/report_v172_gate_and_fundguard_v12_20260708.html" } ], "method_boundary": "赛前推演仅使用模型输出和赛前概率底图；百度文字直播仅用于赛后事实对照，其覆盖数不是模型准确率指标。" }