{
  "site": {
    "name": "FIFA 智能赛前推演",
    "domain": "FIFA.XODN.COM",
    "tagline": "足球比赛情报、概率模型、对抗推演与风险组合仪表盘",
    "updatedAt": "2026-07-22T12:42:29+08:00"
  },
  "updatedAt": "2026-08-30T17:16:24.028614+08:00",
  "matches": [
    {
      "id": "104",
      "home": "西班牙",
      "away": "阿根廷",
      "competition": "世界杯",
      "stage": "决赛",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-20 03:00",
      "status": "赛前推演归档",
      "model": "V17 Composite + FundGuard v1.2c",
      "prob": {
        "home": 40,
        "draw": 31,
        "away": 29
      },
      "summary": "西班牙控球结构略优，但阿根廷具备把比赛拖入胶着的经验和转换质量。主线不是追西班牙穿盘，而是西班牙不败、平局高、2球中心、1-1核心。",
      "scores": [
        {
          "score": "1-1",
          "weight": 18,
          "label": "中心比分"
        },
        {
          "score": "2-1",
          "weight": 13,
          "label": "西班牙小胜"
        },
        {
          "score": "1-0",
          "weight": 12,
          "label": "低比分小胜"
        },
        {
          "score": "0-0",
          "weight": 8,
          "label": "决赛收紧尾部"
        },
        {
          "score": "1-2",
          "weight": 7,
          "label": "阿根廷反杀尾部"
        }
      ],
      "risk": "中高",
      "href": "matches/104.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "103",
      "home": "法国",
      "away": "英格兰",
      "competition": "世界杯",
      "stage": "季军赛",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-19 05:00",
      "status": "赛后复盘",
      "model": "Integrity Audit",
      "prob": {
        "home": 0,
        "draw": 0,
        "away": 0
      },
      "summary": "法国 4-6 英格兰：三四名赛动机松弛、法国上半场崩盘、英格兰极高效率。当前证据不足以定性假球，应作为反例库样本。",
      "scores": [
        {
          "score": "4-6",
          "weight": 100,
          "label": "实际赛果"
        }
      ],
      "risk": "反例",
      "href": "matches/103.html"
    }
  ],
  "reports": [
    {
      "file": "report_fundguard_104_2000_plan_20260719.md",
      "title": "104 Spain vs Argentina FundGuard 2000 Plan 2026-07-19",
      "mtime": "2026-07-19T21:03:20.114069+08:00",
      "excerpt": "# 104 Spain vs Argentina FundGuard 2000 Plan 2026-07-19 官方赔率已刷新：SPF 2.11 / 2.96 / 3.15；西班牙-1 让负 1.57；JQS 2球 3.25、3球 4.05；BF 1-1 5.45、0-0 8.00、2-1 7.00、1-2 10.00。 预算合计：2020 元。 ## 模型结论 104 是决赛，不把 103 三四名赛 4-6 的开放反例机械外推。决赛语义应重新收紧。西班牙控球结构和整体压迫略优，阿根廷淘汰赛经验、转换和定位球使平局很高。主线：西班牙不败略优但不穿盘；1-1 / 2球 / 平局是中心；2-1 是西班牙小胜尾部；1-2 是阿根廷反杀小仓。 ## 风控规则 - 全部按90分钟含伤停补时。 - RQSPF不"
    },
    {
      "file": "report_103_france_england_integrity_audit_20260719.md",
      "title": "103 France vs England Integrity / Abnormality Audit 2026-07-19",
      "mtime": "2026-07-19T19:30:58.030422+08:00",
      "excerpt": "# 103 France vs England Integrity / Abnormality Audit 2026-07-19 数据源：百度体育赛况/统计页 + 百度搜索结果中的央视战报摘要。 注意：本报告只能判断“是否有可见异常信号”，不能在没有硬证据时定性假球。 ## Confirmed Facts - 比赛性质：世界杯季军赛 / 三四名决赛。 - 赛果：法国 4-6 英格兰。 - 百度搜索结果中的央视摘要：英格兰 6:4 胜法国获季军，萨卡帽子戏法，法国上下半场表现完全不同。 - 百度统计：法国控球 46%，英格兰 54%；法国进攻 75，英格兰 60；法国危险进攻 55，英格兰 27；法国射正 9，英格兰射正 11；法国射偏 6，英格兰射偏 2；角球 3-4；点球 0-1；黄牌 0-0；红牌 0-"
    },
    {
      "file": "final4_prematch_data_pack_20260713.md",
      "title": "Final 4 Prematch Data Pack 2026-07-13",
      "mtime": "2026-07-13T14:14:54.253202+08:00",
      "excerpt": "# Final 4 Prematch Data Pack 2026-07-13 Status: PARTIAL_STRICT_FINAL4_DATA_PACK ## Matches / Official Odds ### #101 France vs Spain | 2026-07-15 03:00 | Dallas Stadium - SPF: {'France': 2.07, 'Draw': 3.1, 'Spain': 3.1} - RQSPF: {'France-1 Win': 4.6, 'Draw': 3.7, 'Spain+1 Win': 1.56} - JQS: {'0': 11.5, '1': 5.0, '2': 3.5, '3': 3.5, '4': 5.2, '5': 9.5, '6':"
    },
    {
      "file": "remaining_worldcup_projection_20260713.md",
      "title": "Remaining World Cup Projection 2026-07-13",
      "mtime": "2026-07-13T11:15:05.702852+08:00",
      "excerpt": "# Remaining World Cup Projection 2026-07-13 Status: PARTIAL_STRICT_PATH_PROJECTION; 99/100 results must be refreshed if already final. Uses existing V17/FundGuard gates, latest local prematch packs, and no-flip referee policy where available. ## Quarterfinals - #97 France vs Morocco: pick=France; 90m={'France': 0.56, 'Draw90': 0.25, 'Morocco': 0.19}; advan"
    },
    {
      "file": "fixture_91_104_summary_20260713.md",
      "title": "未命名报告",
      "mtime": "2026-07-13T11:12:04.575878+08:00",
      "excerpt": "## fixtures_104_complete_baidu_20260705.csv match_no=91 | round_number=5 | round_label=1/8决赛 | date_utc=2026-07-05 20:00:00Z | beijing_time=2026-07-06 04:00 | location=New York/New Jersey Stadium | home=Brazil | away=Norway | home_90= | away_90= | wdl_90= | advanced_team= | result_basis=future_fixture_no_result | source_quality=baidu_schedule_future_fixture"
    }
  ],
  "models": [
    {
      "name": "V17 Composite Neural-Teacher Stack",
      "desc": "主方向融合 Tv16-PK v5.5 与 V15.6 Handicap No-Flip，强调严格赛前口径与反例门禁。"
    },
    {
      "name": "LiveText Event Layer",
      "desc": "从历史百度文字直播事件序列学习比赛过程风险；不使用待预测同场直播，避免事后作弊。"
    },
    {
      "name": "Referee No-Flip Overlay",
      "desc": "裁判只调整节奏、牌、点球和比分尾部，不直接翻转胜平负主方向。"
    },
    {
      "name": "FundGuard 风险组合",
      "desc": "控制核心腿暴露、区分防守票/放大票/尾部票，避免组合全压单一脚本。"
    }
  ],
  "fundguard": {
    "budget": 2020,
    "thesis": "104 决赛以1-1、2球、平局为核心，辅以西班牙小胜和阿根廷反杀尾部；辅助赛事只放大赔率，不反客为主。",
    "tickets": [
      {
        "id": "001",
        "stake": 240,
        "text": "104 总进球 2球 @3.25",
        "type": "核心"
      },
      {
        "id": "002",
        "stake": 220,
        "text": "104 比分 1-1 @5.45",
        "type": "核心"
      },
      {
        "id": "003",
        "stake": 180,
        "text": "104 胜平负 平 @2.96",
        "type": "保护"
      },
      {
        "id": "004",
        "stake": 120,
        "text": "104 比分 2-1 @7.00",
        "type": "小胜"
      },
      {
        "id": "005",
        "stake": 100,
        "text": "104 比分 1-0 @7.15",
        "type": "小胜"
      },
      {
        "id": "008",
        "stake": 260,
        "text": "104 西班牙-1让负 × 205 哈马比胜",
        "type": "防守串"
      },
      {
        "id": "010",
        "stake": 160,
        "text": "104 平 × 204 赫根胜",
        "type": "放大"
      }
    ]
  },
  "postmortems": [
    {
      "match": "103 法国 4-6 英格兰",
      "label": "高度反常反例",
      "summary": "三四名赛动机松弛、法国上半场防线崩盘、英格兰极高效率和下半场乱战共同导致模型远尾。不能仅凭文字直播定性假球，应进入反例库而非作为直接指控。"
    }
  ]
}